Writing a new immigration story for Canada

Writing a new immigration story for Canada

By Michael Adams, Wendy Cukier and Keith Neuman

For most of the past few decades our country has been welcoming large numbers of immigrants – both permanent and temporary – with the support of most Canadians. But then it changed. One year ago our latest Focus Canada survey of public opinion documented a dramatic two-year rise in Canadians’ concerns about the number of newcomers arriving into the country, and for the first time  in a quarter century a majority said there is too much immigration. This shift in sentiment mirrored a sharp increase in the volume of immigrants being admitted post-pandemic--most prominently temporary workers and international students--and an alarming increase in anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Last fall the federal government responded to growing public concerns by reversing course and sharply reducing immigration levels and incorporating temporary residents into their planning for how many to welcome each year. What impact has this had on Canadians’ confidence in the system?

This fall (shortly before release of the new federal budget), more than half of Canadians continue to say there is too much immigration to this country but this proportion has levelled off from a year ago. The announced reductions in immigration levels likely made some difference in staunching this upward trend. But the government’s pivot also helped focus greater public attention on the issue, as those critical of current volumes are increasingly linking the problem to poor government management of the system. In comparison, fewer now worry that immigrants are exacerbating the country’s current housing affordability problems.

Our latest findings confirm that the public discourse in Canada is focused on the country’s capacity to absorb the volume of newcomers arriving, and secondarily on the places from where newcomers are coming (what in previous generations was the primary basis for opposing immigration). Yet ongoing public concerns about immigration levels may be contributing to growing resistance to immigrants themselves, as our research also shows an uptick in the number of Canadians who question the legitimacy of some refugees and believe too many newcomers are not adopting Canadian values. This trend is worrying as it risks building into a broader xenophobic sentiment demonizing immigrants we are now seeing in the United States, Great Britain and Europe.

Behind these latest national findings is the growing political divide in how Canadians view immigration. A generation ago opinions on this issue were essentially the same across supporters of the main federal political parties, but today it is one that most clearly divides the electorate. It is mostly among Canadians who support the federal Conservative Party where opposition to both immigration levels and immigrants themselves has continued to grow; the gap in opinions between them and supporters of the federal Liberals and NDP has widened further and is now the largest ever recorded in our research (dating back to 1977). To take just one example, fewer than half (49%) of Conservative Party supporters now agree that immigration has a positive impact on the Canadian economy, compared with almost nine in ten who would vote Liberal (87%) or NDP (87%).

Taken as a whole, the sentiments now expressed by a large majority of federal Conservative supporters suggests this party could be on its way to becoming the closest this country has seen to an openly anti-immigrant mainstream political party.

The widening political polarization aside, our research also demonstrates that Canadians as a whole are not yet turning their backs on immigration. Public worry about immigration is largely focused at a national level that is fed by media narratives and political rhetoric rather than personal experience. When asked specifically about immigration in their local community, most Canadians say the net impact is positive or makes no difference where they live; only one in six say it is negative.

Canadians continue to define their country’s uniqueness first and foremost in terms of its multiculturalism, diversity and tolerance of difference, ahead of such attributes as the land, democratic freedoms, health care or hockey. Eight in ten believe that someone born outside of Canada is just as likely to be a good citizen of this country as someone born here.

The Canadian success story about immigration we celebrated just a few years ago has changed, and we are now writing a new chapter. The world is changing rapidly in ways that we cannot expect to avoid, and the path forward will be like navigating rapids in a surging river. Sustaining public and political support for the multicultural and immigrant-welcoming society that Canada has built over the past half-century will require a careful balance between the immigration inflow necessary for economic growth and labour market demand, and our collective capacity to ensure a place (that is, a home, a job, health care, education and other essential public services) for everyone, native-born and newcomer alike. The newly-released federal budget appears aimed in this direction, and time will tell whether it helps us reach such balance.

This new chapter calls upon our leaders across all sectors to reframe the narrative around how we think about newcomers who arrive in our country. The tendency is to think of them primarily as people who require housing, jobs and other supports like language training – as a drain on government funding and places pressure on existing resources. Instead we need to focus more on newcomers as an essential influx of talent and needed skills that can help energize our communities and maintain our current standard of living now and into the future.

The survey findings in this article are drawn from the Environics Institute's Focus Canada public opinion research program (launched in 1976). This 2025 survey was conducted in partnership with the Diversity Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University, and with the ongoing support of the Century Initiative.

Related report Focus Canada 2025 Series report Canadian public opinion about immigration and refugees

Authors

Michael Adams is the founder and president of the non-profit Environics Institute for Survey Research.

Wendy Cukier is professor of entrepreneurship and strategy, and the academic director of the Diversity Institute.

Keith Neuman is a senior associate and former executive director with the Environics Institute.