What public opinion tells us about the political outlook for 2026

The following article was published in Policy Options on December 29l 20205.

Andrew Parkin is the executive director of the Environics Institute for Survey Research

With a minority government in Ottawa, a federal election is possible at any time – triggered either deliberately or by accident. This encourages political observers to check opinion polls as often as regular people check the weather. The slightest movement for one party or another sparks more speculation about whether the government is about to fall.

Let’s take a step back and look at what trends we have seen in our public opinion research over the past year that are encouraging, either for the government or for the opposition. What do these findings suggest about their prospects for 2026?

Immigration

Rarely has the tide turned so decisively as it did recently in opinions about immigration. The proportion agreeing there is too much immigration more than doubled between 2022 and 2024, to 58 from 27 per cent – a trend which reflected badly on the Liberals.

However, there is now a glimmer of hope for the Carney government because this sentiment stabilized in 2025. A majority (56 per cent) still agrees there is too much immigration, but the recent federal caps may have prevented a further decline.

There is another wrinkle: the widening partisan gap. Supporters of the federal Conservative Party (82 per cent) are now twice as likely as Liberal Party supporters (40 per cent) to agree that immigration levels are too high.

Continue reading this article.